Omicron: bleak new year or beginning of the end for the pandemic?

Once again, Britain is experiencing a festive season hit by waves of Covid-19 infections. Last year, Christmas and the new year were spoiled by the appearance of the Alpha variant. This time, it is Omicron that has sent case numbers soaring. Christmas cancellations have swept through Britain’s restaurants, pubs and clubs and left the country on the brink of another bleak New Year as the NHS warns once more that it is facing the threat of being overwhelmed by spiralling numbers of seriously ill patients.

The scenario has raised fears that this now represents the shape of Christmases to come. Social restrictions and lockdown threats could become our normal festive fare.

It is a dispiriting prospect. But is it realistic? Are we justified in drawing close parallels between this Christmas and last year’s? These are key questions because, in trying to answer them, we may also find clues to the likely path of the entire pandemic.

How close does this year’s outbreak parallel that of last winter?

At first glance, the two years look strikingly similar, with case numbers rocketing in only a few weeks in the UK. However, hospitalisations and deaths from Covid-19 remain very low so far this year, with latest research suggesting that the new variant appears to trigger fewer cases of severe illness than its viral predecessors.

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